Stocks:
What
causes stock price to change?
Stock prices change everyday because of supply and demand in that
particular stock. If
more people want to buy a stock (demand) than sell it (supply), then the
price moves up. Conversely, if more people wanted to sell a stock than
buy it, there would be greater supply than demand, and the price would
fall.
Understanding supply and demand is easy. What is difficult to comprehend
is what makes people like a particular stock and dislike another stock.
This comes down to figuring out what news is positive for a company and
what news is negative. There are many answers to this problem and just
about any investor you ask has their own ideas and strategies.
The principal theory is that the price movement of a
stock indicates what investors feel a company is worth. But don't equate a
company's value with the stock price. The value of a company is its market capitalization, which is the stock price multiplied by the
number of shares outstanding.
For example, a company with 100 million shares of stock with a current
market value of $30 a share would have a market capitalization of $3
billion. Therefore a company that trades at $100 per share and has
1,000,000 shares outstanding has a lesser value than a company that
trades at $50 but has 5,000,000 shares outstanding ($100 x 1,000,000 =
$100,000,000 while $50 x 5,000,000 = $250,000,000). To further
complicate things, the price of a stock doesn't only reflect a company's
current value--it also reflects the growth that investors expect in the
future.
The most important factor that affects the value of a company is its earnings
which in turn affects the price of the stock.
Earnings are profits, or net income, after the company has paid income
taxes and bond interest, and in the long run no company can survive without them.
It makes sense when you think about it. If a company never makes money,
how are they aren't going to stay in business?
Public
companies are required to report their earnings four times a year by
the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), officially known as Form 10-Q,
describing their financial results for the quarter. The financial world splits
up its calendar into four quarters, each three months long. If January to March
is the first quarter, April to June is the second quarter, and so on, though a
company's first quarter does not have to begin in January. Wall street pays
close attention to these at these times of "earnings seasons"
These reports and the predictions that
market analysts make about them often have an impact on a company's stock price.
For example, if analysts predict that a certain company will have earnings of 50
cents a share in a quarter, and the results beat those expectations (earnings
surprise), the price of the company's stock may increase. But if the earnings
are less than expected (earnings disappoint), even by a penny or two, the stock
price will fall.
Of course, it's not just earnings that can affect
a stock price. It would be a rather simple
world if this were the case! During the dot-com
bubble of the late 1990's, for example, dozens of Internet companies rose to have market
capitalizations in the billions of dollars without ever making even the
smallest profit. These valuations for these companies were not based on
earnings because they had none, rather based on future rapid growth of the
industry. Almost
all Internet companies saw their values shrink to a fraction of their
highs a few years later. Still, the fact that prices did move that much demonstrates that
there are factors other than current earnings that influence stocks.
Investors have developed literally hundreds of these variables, ratios
and indicators. Some you may have already heard of, such as the
Price to Earnings ratio (P/E ratio), Price-to-book
ratios, while others are extremely complicated and obscure with
names like Chaikin Oscillator or Moving Average
Convergence Divergence (MACD).
Next-->>
What are the bulls and the bears
In
time of prosperity our friends know us;
in time of adversity we know our friends.
-- Churton J.
Collins --
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