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Stocks: What causes stock price to change?

Stock prices change everyday because of supply and demand in that particular stock. If more people want to buy a stock (demand) than sell it (supply), then the price moves up. Conversely, if more people wanted to sell a stock than buy it, there would be greater supply than demand, and the price would fall. Understanding supply and demand is easy. What is difficult to comprehend is what makes people like a particular stock and dislike another stock. This comes down to figuring out what news is positive for a company and what news is negative. There are many answers to this problem and just about any investor you ask has their own ideas and strategies.

The principal theory is that the price movement of a stock indicates what investors feel a company is worth. But don't equate a company's value with the stock price. The value of a company is its market capitalization, which is the stock price multiplied by the number of shares outstanding. For example, a company with 100 million shares of stock with a current market value of $30 a share would have a market capitalization of $3 billion. Therefore a company that trades at $100 per share and has 1,000,000 shares outstanding has a lesser value than a company that trades at $50 but has 5,000,000 shares outstanding ($100 x 1,000,000 = $100,000,000 while $50 x 5,000,000 = $250,000,000). To further complicate things, the price of a stock doesn't only reflect a company's current value--it also reflects the growth that investors expect in the future.

The most important factor that affects the value of a company is its earnings which in turn affects the price of the stock. Earnings are profits, or net income, after the company has paid income taxes and bond interest, and in the long run no company can survive without them. It makes sense when you think about it. If a company never makes money, how are they aren't going to stay in business? Public companies are required to report their earnings four times a year by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), officially known as Form 10-Q, describing their financial results for the quarter. The financial world splits up its calendar into four quarters, each three months long. If January to March is the first quarter, April to June is the second quarter, and so on, though a company's first quarter does not have to begin in January. Wall street pays close attention to these at these times of "earnings seasons"

These reports and the predictions that market analysts make about them often have an impact on a company's stock price. For example, if analysts predict that a certain company will have earnings of 50 cents a share in a quarter, and the results beat those expectations (earnings surprise), the price of the company's stock may increase. But if the earnings are less than expected (earnings disappoint), even by a penny or two, the stock price will fall. 

Of course, it's not just earnings that can affect a stock price. It would be a rather simple world if this were the case! During the dot-com bubble of the late 1990's, for example, dozens of Internet companies rose to have market capitalizations in the billions of dollars without ever making even the smallest profit. These valuations for these companies were not based on earnings because they had none, rather based on future rapid growth of the industry. Almost all Internet companies saw their values shrink to a fraction of their highs a few years later. Still, the fact that prices did move that much demonstrates that there are factors other than current earnings that influence stocks. Investors have developed literally hundreds of these variables, ratios and indicators. Some you may have already heard of, such as the Price to Earnings ratio (P/E ratio), Price-to-book ratios, while others are extremely complicated and obscure with names like Chaikin Oscillator or Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

What is a Stock Split?

Splitting stock means that each outstanding share is broken into pieces. For example, in a two-for-one split (2:1 split), if your stock today is worth $50 per share, and you own 100 shares you have:
 

$50 x 100 = $5,000 worth of stock
After a 2:1 split, you'll have:
$25 x 200 = $5,000 worth of stock.

The reason a company do this is to make its shares more attractive and affordable to a greater number of investors, stock split creates more shares selling at a lower price. Even though stock owners are no better or worse than before, announcements of stock splits, or anticipated stock splits, often generate a great deal of interest. Buyers may simply want to take advantage of the lower share price, or they may believe that the split stock will increase in value, moving back toward its presplit price.

While 2-for-1 splits are the most common, stocks can be also be split 3-to-1, 10-to-1, or in any other combination. In addition, a company can reverse the process and consolidate shares to reduce their number by authorizing a reverse stock split. Reverse stock split reduces the number of shares outstanding while increasing the share price. Most often, companies do this to meet stock exchange requirements.

Why earnings are important:
Earnings of a company are extremely important for a company to be successful, especially for a long term. In a short term, it may not matter as much. The price of the stock over the long term have a direct correlation with the growth of the company's profit or earnings. People who have made money in the stock market usually bought companies that have done very well over time. It may to hard to believe but Wal-Mart was a small company with small profits. But now, they are the largest retail in the world  and making billions in profits. So was Amgen, Home Depot, Microsoft, Intel, Dell and so on.

It's true that companies go out of business for one reason or another; fraud in the case of Enron. So K-Mart went bankrupt. There are over nine thousand public companies out there. Guess what? Wal-Mart did very well, thank you. If you had put $10,000 into K-Mart 20 years ago and $10,000 in Wal-Mart, you would have basically lost the $10,000 on K-Mart but you would've made $790,000 on Wal-Mart. For every Enron or K-Mart out there, there are companies that do very well, like GE, Proctor & Gamble, Coca-Cola, Gilette or Johnson & Johnson.

In the long run, there is only one reason why stocks go up: Companies grow from small to large or go from doing poorly to doing well. Bottom line is if company do well, their stocks will too.

Next-->>  What are the bulls and the bears


In time of prosperity our friends know us;
       in time of adversity we know our friends.
                           -- Churton J. Collins --

 



 

 

         

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When you 're diagnosed with cancer, you start to bargain with God: "Let me get through this, and I'll take better care of myself. I'll get my priorities in order. I'll learn to live every day to the fullest." Isn't it sad that you have to get sick before giving yourself permission to live life to the fullest? -- Robert Schimmel Look at Life in different & Positive ways