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BlackJack: Card Counting
HISTORY
In 1962 Edward O. Thorpe's book "Beat the Dealer" appeared. Thorpe, through the
use of computer trials, proved that certain cards were favorable to the player,
and other cards favorable to the dealer. He proved that "depending" on what
cards had been played, one could determine what cards were left. Therefore if
more cards were left that favored the player, the player had an advantage and
could now raise the bet according to this advantage.
INTRODUCTION
Card counting while at a Blackjack table is the only way you can get a long
term, statistical advantage over the casino. Card counting works on the concept
that some cards are good for the player (high-value cards), while others are bad
(low-value cards). Why are the low-value cards good for the dealer? Because the
dealer has to follow rigid rules regarding hitting. He must hit if she has less
than 17. Taking note of the cards that have been played can determine whether
the remaining cards are beneficial to the player, and altering betting and
playing strategy accordingly. This may sound like a complex process, but it is
in fact relatively simple. You dont need a photographic memory, only to be able
to add and subtract by units of 1.
How large is your advantage when counting cards? On some hands it can be as high
as three or four percent, but overall it is around one percent, depending upon
the specific rules of the game. Counting does not give us an automatic winning
edge on every hand. You will win, on average, about 44% of all hands played in
the long-run. The long run is defined as beginning after about 400 or 500 hours
of play. This will give us some 50,000 hands, a number large enough that it can
have some statistical meaning.
IS IT ILLEGAL?
No. as long as you are using only your brain to count cards as opposed to a
computerized device) then it is legal. Then how the casino have the authority to
kick you out? In Nevada, it is because the casino in on private property and
they have the right to ask anyone to leave for any reason. If you count cards
and the casino kicks you out and then you return, they can arrest you for
tresspassing. Although some people think this is discrimination, it doesn't meet
the legal definition of discrimination because card counters are not members of
a classification that is covered by discrimination laws, as defined by the
Supreme Court. In Atlantic City the laws state that card counting is allowed.
But in response to that rule, the casinos have made the game tougher to beat.
They do this several ways: using 8 deck shoes, having lower deck penetration,
prohibiting mid-shoe entry (and therefore cutting down on the number of players
who sit down only when the count is good).
CAN THEY "BACKROOM" YOU?
"Backrooming" is a term used to describe the process in which the casino takes
you into their backroom in order to ask for your ID, take your picture, and
lecture you (in the OLD days they might even rough you up). Under the laws of
most states, it is illegal for a business establishment to detain a person,
unless the customer has committed a crime and the business is holding the person
while awaiting the arrival of police. So they can detain you if you are cheating
(by using a mini computer, etc) but not for card counting.
HOW TO COUNT
STEP ONE: Basic Strategy
First you must learn Basic Strategy. Because of
computers, basic strategy has been proven to be mathmatically valid so there
is nothing to "learn", only to memorize. To become a successfull card
counter, basic Strategy (BS) must become second nature - and if you play
enough hands it will.
STEP TWO: Learn the Running Count
Using "Hi/Lo" as an example system, the 2-6 cards
are valued at +1, and the 10-value cards and Aces are counted as -1. Note
that there are the same amount in each group: 2,3,4,5,6 and 10,J,Q,K,A. The
7,8,9 are neutral in this count. To learn how to count, get a deck of cards
and flip them over one at a time and keep the "running count". If they come
out 8,K,3,3,6,2,7,A we would count 0,-1, 0, +1, +2, +3, +3, +2. After you
are done with the deck, the running count should be at 0. If it isn't then
you are making mistakes. Keep practicing until you do come out even at the
end and then you can work on doing it faster. You need to be able to do in
within 30 seconds at most.
Next you can try flipping over 2 cards at a time and keeping an accurate
count. It’s also helpful to learn how to ignore cards that cancel each other
out. For example, if you see a King and a two th en you know they cancel
each ohter out so instead of adding both numbers into the count (which means
doing 2 additional calculations) you ignore them and you dn't have to do any
more math.
STEP THREE: Converting the Running Count to the True
Count
This "running" count must be converted to a "true"
count in order to know what your edge is and to bet accordingly. To do this
we divide the running count by the amount of decks not seen. For example, in
a 6-deck game, after 1 deck has been dealt and the running count is +10, we
take the number of decks undealt (5) and divide that into +10, which gives
you +2. If you have trouble keeping the count straight in your head, you can
use your chips as a reminder. If the count is 4 then have a stack of 4
chips.
STEP FOUR: The Casino Environment
Casinos offer much in the way of distraction, so we
must account for that, too. Between waitresses talking to you, slot machines
going off, and players talking, you will need to be able to ignore all these
distractions but also have to be able to talk to other players or the
dealer. If you don't then it will be obvious that you are counting. Try
counting down a deck of cards while having the TV or music on loud. This
will simulate the casino atmosphere which has a lot of distracting sounds in
the background. Another thing you need to so is act like a tourist. Pretend
you are a player who doesn't know anything about playing blackjack. In order
to accomplish this you need to do a few things: get VERY excited everytime
you hit a big hand, dress either like a tourist or like a bum, have a drink
that looks like alcohol (but isn't) at your table. If you are a girl then
dress slutty - the pit bosses will think you are a bimbo.
STEP FIVE: Bet Spreads
In order for you to make money, you need to bet more
on hands where you have an edge and less on hands where the casino has the
edge. For example, if the odds are in your favor then bet $40, if they are
against you then bet $5. The difference between the two amounts is known as
the "bet spread". The bigger the bet spread the more money you will make but
the bigger the bet spread the more likely you will be caught counting cards.
So your bet spread needs to be high enough to make money but low enough not
to attract attention because a large bet spread is the biggest indicator
that someone is counting cards. A 8-1 spread is good but anything bigger and
you'll get some heat. Generally, as the count goes more in your favor then
your bet spread should be bigger. You can use the following chart as a rough
guide on how much to increase your bet with the count.
| Bet Spread |
| True
Count |
Betting Units |
| +1
|
1
|
| +2 to
+3 |
2
|
| +4 to
+5 |
3
|
| +6 to
+7 |
4
|
| +8 or
more |
5
|
|
STEP SIX: Game Selection
In order for you to make money you need to satisfy
several conditions. Two of the important ones are: the ability to have a
decent bet spread and good penetration. "Deck penetration" is how many of
the decks in play are actually dealt. The high % of the cards that are dealt
the more likely the count is to get high. Therefore, if the casino wants to
minimize the probability of the count getting high then they may only deal
out 3 out of the 6 decks they are using before shuffling. If there is a game
where the conditions are bad then don't play in it. Your profit margin is so
thin when card counting that it is very seneitive to the variables involved.
STEP SEVEN: Bankroll
You must have a large enough bankroll to suffer any
drawdown. You will need at least a few hundred "units" (your small bets) in
order to have a decdent probability of surviving. Bankroll swings are more
drastic with counting for the same average bet than non-counting. This is
because if a non-counter makes 5 bets of $100 then he has an average bet of
$100, but if a card counter makes 10 bets of $30, $30, $30, $205, $205 then
his average bet wil be $100 also but his large bets means he will have
higher fluctiations.
CHARACTERISTICS OF A SYSTEM
Different counting systems can be classified different ways. It is good to be
able to look at a system and classify it so that you can see if it fits into
your skill level and goals for counting accuracy. Some of the most important
classifications used by Norm at
qfit.com
are:
Balanced vs. Unbalanced
In a balanced count, all of the point values add up
to zero. In an unbalanced strategy, the sum of all the cards is positive.
Unbalanced strategies have an advantage because they can be used in the
easier running count systems - although they can also be used in true-count
systems. Balanced strategies have an advantage in that they are generally a
bit more accurate and makes the counting easier. Usually unbalanced counts
are better suited for single- and double-deck games. One of the advantages
of balanced count systems is it is easy to see if you are making mistakes
when you are jsut learning because the final count when counting a whole
deck should be 0.
Ace-Reckoned vs. Ace-Neutral
When counting. the Ace is counted as a negative
number (Ace-reckoned) or zero (Ace-neutral). Ace-Reckoned strategies are
generally better for shoe games and Ace-Neutral strategies are better for
single and double deck. Today, Ace-reckoned strategies are more popular.
Level
The level of a strategy refers to the highest value
assigned to cards. Level 2 and 3 card counting strategies are more
efficient, but more difficult for the average people. There are also Level
3, 4 & 5 strategies but you don't need a system that strong. The most
popular strategies these days are level 1. In a level 1 strategy, the high
cards are counted as -1 and the low cards are counted as +1. Many times, in
high level counting systems, the addition profit you get from the higher
accuracy of those systems will be more than offset by the mathmatical errors
you make with the more complicated system.
Side Counts
Some strategies, like the strategy used in The
World's Greatest Blackjack book, use one or more side counts. The most
common is counting the Aces in a separate count to make betting more
accurate in Ace-neutral systems. This is because Aces are large cards for
the purposes of betting but small cards for the purposes of playing when you
don't have a Blackjack.
CHOOSING A SYSTEM
Right after you decide to learn how to count cards you must decide which system
to use. There have been over 100 card counting systems published and you can buy
blackjack simulaiton software to test them out. You should definitely learn a
simple system. Even though the more complex systems could theoretically make
more money per hour, the higher error rate due to mental fatigue and complexity
often more than wiped out the gains over simpler systems. Not to mention, going
form a simple one-level count to an "advanced" multi-level count produces
marginal gain at best, especially in multi-deck games. The most popular counting
system used today (and one of the easiest to learn) is Hi/Lo. The system is
about average as far as being an effective system to make money from counting
cards. This is a good first system to learn because it is easy but effective. It
uses a simple one-level count where the Ace is reckoned. (a value on the Ace).
Count systems that assign no value on the Ace need to use a "side count" for
betting purposes. This is extra work at the table. You can always move up to a
more complicated system later on.
| Hi/Lo |
| A
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
J
|
Q
|
K
|
| +1
|
+1
|
+1
|
+1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
|
For those who are going to count against a 1 or 2-deck shoe, you may want to
learn a simple Level I counting system that keeps a side count of Aces. When
playing with 1 deck, we expect to see one ace per quarter-deck played in a
normal distribution. For example, if a quarter deck has been played and no aces
have come out, the remaining deck is 'rich' one ace. For betting purposes I can
temporarily add +1 to the count, yet for playing purposes the true count without
adjustment is correct. Got that concept? If a quarter-deck has been played and 2
aces have come out, the remaining deck is 'poor' by one ace, so I would lower
the count by 1 (that is, 'add' a minus 1 to the count ) just for betting
purposes, since my opportunity to receive a natural has decreased. Since there
are only four aces to track in a single deck game, I find omitting the ace in
the count improves the play of the hand, yet I can still 'adjust' the count for
betting purposes. This is a very powerful addition to your game, but it is
better to just use it in single-deck play because mentally keeping track of an
ace adjustment is difficult.
A system that will let you do this is the Hi-Opt I system, where the card 3
through 6 are counted as +1 and all the 10-value cards are counted as -1 and
Aces are counted as zero. If switching between single and mutli-deck shoes, you
could use Hi/Lo for multi-deck play and Hi-Opt 1 for single deck play.
| Hi Opt I |
| A
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
J
|
Q
|
K
|
| 0
|
0
|
+1
|
+1
|
+1
|
+1
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
-1
|
|
The first counting systems were geared toward single deck, because at the time
that was the most popular game. Nowadays, most people play (and therefore count)
with a multi-deck shoe. But for those who are plaing single-deck games, the most
difficult aspect about it is computing the true count. First you must train your
eyes to measure the number of cards which have been played. Then, the hard part
is doing the division. In a multideck game, we're dividing by a whole number but
in single deck, you're always dividing by a fraction - whic is harder. For
example, if you're at a single-deck game and a quarter-deck has been played,
with a running count of 6, the true count is 6 divided by .75 = 8.
EVALUATING A SYSTEM
There are certain statistics you can use to evaluation how efficient a counting
system is. Three of these stats are Betting Correlation, Playing Efficiency and
Insurance Correlation. These are terms created by Peter Griffin, author of
Theory of Blackjack. These terms are defined as:
IT AIN'T EASY
The casinos are not in the business of donating money to gamblers, and they
don't like people who can win with any regularity. This leads to the underlying
battle between card counters and the casinos. There is a misconception among
many people that card counting is illegal, and many casino employees in
particular do not feel that card counters should have any rights, treating them
as if they were cheaters. As a result, the casinos alter their rules and
procedures to combat winning blackjack players. Sometimes, they subtly pull out
the welcome mat for players whom they suspect of counting cards; at other times,
card counters may be forcibly ejected, legally or otherwise. In extreme cases,
they see the counter as a crook, and even report you to a detective agency as
such. Sometimes the dealers will count cards along with you and shuffle up only
when the count goes in your favor - this is called 'preferential shuffling".
ARE THE GLORY DAYS ARE OVER?
Unfortunately, blackjack is no longer the easy road to riches. This game has
become more difficult to beat. It takes a lot more than reading a few books and
practicing on a computer simulation. Furthermore, if you do get such a good
game, and the casino will turn a blind eye to you as an expert card-counter,
they will most likely limit the table's spread to no more than 4 units, and put
a maximum cap on bets to $25, or $50, or $100. Mostly, the cap will be about $25
to $50, and that's very rare if this happens at all. The way that Blackjack is
now played in major casinos worldwide simply doesn't allow for the practice of
the theory. What was once a mathematically sound theory that was able to be
successfully applied in practice as a means of defeating the house edge in
Blackjack, and thus derive a player-positive expectation from the game and make
it turn a profit, is now firmly part of history. Casinos simply got tired of
being taken for millions by Blackjack teams and well-bankrolled players, and
changed the rules and methods of dealing and playing the game. Additionally,
they hired personnel that knew how to count cards better than the players trying
to beat the casinos. Furthermore, surveilance technology is now so sophisticated
that any person who walks into any casino is instantly identified, and if the
casino personnel even so much as suspect that you are a card counter, they will
simply ask you to leave. The theory is wonderful -- but no longer as profitable
as it once was in practice.
THE REAL DEAL
Most people think of card counting as this wild ride you go on while making and
losing millions of dollars. They think if you are making $25/hour then you can
make $2 million over a 40-year career. But you cant think of it like that. If
you are playing $50 and you have a 1% edge then you are making 50 cents a hand.
Not very exciting. You are a toll booth and every hand the casino stick 2
quarters in your pocket. Professional players main measure if their theoretical
win rate because that's what they will make in the long-run. If your theoretical
win for the week is $500 but you won $7,000 (very possible) then YOU didn't make
$7,000. YOU made $500 and luck made you $6,500. Card counters make money the
slow and steady way - and it gets boring.
RECREATION
Sometimes card counting is just a phase the average blackjack player goes
through. First, he plays blackjack and realizes how much money he is losing.
Then he buys a couple of card counting books and decides to learn about it. Then
he starts practicing card counting at home. Then he goes to a casino to play and
gets marginal results. At this point most quit.
Most people do not have the time, desire, or energy to do what it takes to
become an expert card counter. Card counting is not rocket science, but it does
takes work. But just because you can't learn how to count cards and turn
professional doesn't mean you still shouldn't learn how to do it. There are
plenty of players out there who want to improve their game, enjoy the
intellectual challenge of taking on the casinos, and hopefully make a few bucks
and earn some comps in the process. Even if you only break even at least you
will be able to play all the blackjack you want over a lifetime and not lose
money (theoretically speaking).
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